Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2008 at 9:03 a.m. by Chris Amico in Projects and The Dalian Life about China, data, demographics, research and the Dalian life
A while back, I tried to answer a simple question people often asked me about Dalian: How many people live there?
Simple question, tough answer. Alex found a good dataset, which we put on DalianDalian. Well, the question has come back.
I'm writing a cover story on real estate in China's second-tier cities for an investment newsletter, and as part of the project, I've decided to compile a database of locales, most of which people outside of China have likely never heard (admittedly, there are some I couldn't have put on a map before starting this piece).
I have a spreadsheet defining cities, provinces, regions, population, major industries, notable real estate and other notes. Most of that information is widely available, especially since these cities are now making a major push for investment. But population has proven tricky. For the map I'll eventually build off this database, I think I'm going to attach the following disclaimer/explainer:
Counting how many people live in any Chinese city is an imperfect science. For this dataset, we've relied on a variety of sources, including government websites, published reports and other online resources. Part of the problem is the population itself. Chinese cities have been undergoing a massive growth spurt since 1978, when the government first began letting people move to urban areas en masse. Most of this movement is legal, and counted in official surveys. Residents register with local authorities in order to receive government services, such as health and education. But unofficial migration is also widespread, and most cities have large segments that remain uncounted (and unserved). Further blurring statistics is the way a city is defined. In Dalian, for example, the urban center--what might be called the city proper--is home to about 2 million people. Add in the surrounding "towns" such as Zhuanghe (pop. 700,000) or Pulandian (pop. 900,000)--both of which are a mix of city and countryside--and the total is above 6 million. Different sources count different areas, making a definitive number hard to come by. This is a long way of saying: Take these numbers with a grain of salt, and please, forgive us if you've seen a different number elsewhere.
How's it sound?
Comments:
Comments are closed for this post. If you still have something to say, please email me.
may 28, 2008 at 4:36 a.m. // China Econics - ChinaInDepth.o said:
I think you've hi on one of the most important points:
In China a city controls a region consisting of the city and nearby areas. For example, bordering Dalian 'region' to the North is the Anshan 'region', but to get there you'd have to go past the Dalian City borders, enter the region around Wafangdian City, go through Wafangdian city, re-enter Wafangdian rural area, then head on up to Anshan region, then enter Anshan City.
All a bit of a legacy from when the CCP decided to do communism in a more autonomous way from their Soviet counterparts. That arose because China in 1949 had a substantial amount of private land owners who needed to be placated with the new system of governance, unlike Russia in 1917 where the majority of the population were serfs (both systems placated the army). It was worse before recent reforms - villages, micro regions with very specific production targets, market towns, etc etc.
So... this legacy affects understanding of statistics and also affects the common man. If you're Chinese and from Pulandian/Wafangdian/Zhuanghe you'd have a local Hukou, not a Dalian City Hukou (this was changed for Dalian in the 80s IIRC) which would affect you prospects of regional migration, benefits in larger cities, etc. If you bought a house for more than 200,000 RMB in Dalian City your hukou could be transferred to Dalian City, this policy going into action around 2000 which (among other things, but significant) led to the start of the Dalian house price appreciation (as locals with one-child families have sort-of a natural hedge against local house price inflation, no matter how little they earn, a hedge that will increase in the next couple of decades). Current price of my place, in an unremarkable apartment block that probably won't stand more than 30 years: 14,000 RMB/square meter, I'm sure you could buy a place in an American 2nd/3rd/Southern tier city for a comparable price.
Apologies for the overly long and rambling comment!
As for a source for the data, I am positive there will be something sensible in Chinese language, at least for population data, will have a dig around for you.